Category

Macro Analysis
Daily Insights Resilient earnings expectations in developed international markets. In an environment where U.S. earnings have generally paced the globe, 2019 earnings estimates for the MSCI EAFE Index-mostly Europe with much of the rest in Japan-have actually held up better than those in the U.S. and emerging markets (EM)recently. Over the past month, despite heightened concerns about global growth,...
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Daily Insights Make it three in a row. The S&P 500 Index rose for the third day in a row for the first time since ahead of the Midterm elections. In fact, stocks haven’t closed in the red since Federal Reserve (Fed)Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed would be ‘patient’ in regards to its interest rate policy. But just how...
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Daily Insights U.S. non-manufacturing misses, but still strong. ISM’s non-manufacturing index registered a five-month low of 57.6 for December, missing consensus forecasts for 58.5. Much of the decline in the overall reading can be attributed to a drop in inventories and employment. However, an uptick in new orders, to 62.7, shows that future activity in...
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Daily Insights U.S.-China negotiations kick off. Investors are cautiously optimistic as the U.S. and China kicked off fresh negotiations ahead of the March 1 deadline imposed by President Trump to get a deal done, particularly after Chinese Vice Premier Liu He-the top economic advisor to Chinese President Xi Jinping-made an unexpected appearance. His presence suggests China is...
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Daily Insights What happened? Investors are still scratching their heads after a tumultuous Q4 that dragged the S&P 500 Index down >13% to finish 2018 in negative territory (-4.4%), its worst yearly return since 2008. Slew of manufacturing PMI. Markit Manufacturing PMI reports from a dozen countries, including the U.S. and China, showed overall activity remains steady and in expansionary...
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Daily Insights Fed hikes again, but lowers projections. The Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates yesterday, but lowered its projections for future rate increases in a nod to both the hawks and the doves. Still, the S&P 500 Index slid 1.5% for the day after being up about 1% pre-announcement (more below), closing down for a seventh straight Fed day. Oversold...
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Daily Insights Fed decision. The Federal Reserve (Fed) wraps up its two-day meeting this afternoon and will announce its rate-hike decision at 2pm eastern. Market expectations for an increase are north of 70% but have fallen over the past week, along with equities, as oil continues to slide (details below) and geopolitical uncertainties persist. Oil stabilizes after 7%...
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Daily Insights Investors piling into bonds, high-yield issuers staying away. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s December survey, pessimism among investors is at its highest level in a decade, with November seeing the largest one-month rotation into bonds since the firm started its survey in 2001, though participants remained underweight fixed income in aggregate. At...
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Daily Insights After nearly 10 years of witnessing the U.S. economy and stock market recover-and thrive-investors are starting to wonder if we’ve seen all this expansion and bull market have to offer. At LPL Research, we believe there’s more room to run, and don’t expect an impending recession or bear market in 2019. However, it is...
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Daily Insights Still range-bound. While markets are moving lower in early trading today, this week’s action has been relatively muted compared to the past several months. We remain encouraged by the S&P 500 Index’s ability to hold support and continue to believe that a potential triple bottom is in play, as discussed earlier this week in our Weekly Market...
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