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Macro View
Daily Insights Stocks continue to grind higher. Major indexes opened higher today, with the S&P 500 Index already posting gains in three of the four days so far this week. The volatility that has marked the last three months has been nowhere to be found so far in 2019, with the index consolidating gains in a less than 4%...
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Daily Insights Treasury yield curve steepens, spread to investment grade widens. The Treasury yield curve steepened over the past week despite recent data suggesting global economic activity, particularly in China, ticked lower. Instead, more dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank officials amid the backdrop of a robust labor market, healthy wage growth, and moderate price inflation...
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Daily Insights Weak Chinese trade data, the unofficial kickoff of fourth quarter earnings season, and the ongoing government shutdown are on investors radars this morning. Weak trade data adds pressure on China. China’s exports fell 4.4% year over year, well below the expected 2% increase, while Chinese imports significantly missed expectations slipping 3.1%. Both figures...
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Daily Insights Resilient earnings expectations in developed international markets. In an environment where U.S. earnings have generally paced the globe, 2019 earnings estimates for the MSCI EAFE Index-mostly Europe with much of the rest in Japan-have actually held up better than those in the U.S. and emerging markets (EM)recently. Over the past month, despite heightened concerns about global growth,...
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Daily Insights Make it three in a row. The S&P 500 Index rose for the third day in a row for the first time since ahead of the Midterm elections. In fact, stocks haven’t closed in the red since Federal Reserve (Fed)Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed would be ‘patient’ in regards to its interest rate policy. But just how...
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Daily Insights U.S. non-manufacturing misses, but still strong. ISM’s non-manufacturing index registered a five-month low of 57.6 for December, missing consensus forecasts for 58.5. Much of the decline in the overall reading can be attributed to a drop in inventories and employment. However, an uptick in new orders, to 62.7, shows that future activity in...
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Daily Insights U.S.-China negotiations kick off. Investors are cautiously optimistic as the U.S. and China kicked off fresh negotiations ahead of the March 1 deadline imposed by President Trump to get a deal done, particularly after Chinese Vice Premier Liu He-the top economic advisor to Chinese President Xi Jinping-made an unexpected appearance. His presence suggests China is...
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Daily Insights What happened? Investors are still scratching their heads after a tumultuous Q4 that dragged the S&P 500 Index down >13% to finish 2018 in negative territory (-4.4%), its worst yearly return since 2008. Slew of manufacturing PMI. Markit Manufacturing PMI reports from a dozen countries, including the U.S. and China, showed overall activity remains steady and in expansionary...
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Daily Insights U.S., China talks progress as Chinese economic slowdown continues. In a tweet over the weekend, President Trump suggested that a “deal is moving along very well” after a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Though the president indicated “big progress is being made,” skeptics abound that a comprehensive agreement is imminent. However, China is feeling...
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Daily Insights Fed hikes again, but lowers projections. The Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates yesterday, but lowered its projections for future rate increases in a nod to both the hawks and the doves. Still, the S&P 500 Index slid 1.5% for the day after being up about 1% pre-announcement (more below), closing down for a seventh straight Fed day. Oversold...
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