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Daily Macro View
Daily Insights Japan’s manufacturing activity stopped expanding in December. Activity in Japan’s manufacturing sector fell to the neutral mark in December, according to flash Purchasing Managers’ Index data out this morning, after two-and-a-half years of expansion. This follows trade data yesterday that showed Japanese exports fell 3.8% year over year in December, the slowest pace in two years amid...
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Daily Insights Volatility reemerges, but focus on the long term. Major U.S. indexes are recouping some of yesterday’s losses, which stemmed from reports that the White House rejected an offer hold preparatory talks ahead of trade negotiations between top officials later this month. But after the S&P 500 Index’s ~10% run over the past four weeks (details below),...
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Daily Insights Earnings season off to a slow start but it’s early. With just 55 S&P 500 Index companies having reported results, fourth quarter earnings growth for the index is tracking to a 14.2% year-over-year increase, below the 15.8% consensus estimate as of December 31. Most of the shortfall is attributable to financials. Overall, 76% of companies have exceeded...
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Daily Insights Stocks continue to grind higher. Major indexes opened higher today, with the S&P 500 Index already posting gains in three of the four days so far this week. The volatility that has marked the last three months has been nowhere to be found so far in 2019, with the index consolidating gains in a less than 4%...
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Daily Insights EM still looks like a better value than Europe. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index and S&P 500 Index are both trading at 5-6% discounts to their 25 year averages, while Europe is trading in line with its average, on a forward price-to-earnings ratio (PE) basis. Though the nearly 20% Japan-driven discount for the EAFE relative to the S&P 500 looks attractive,...
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Daily Insights No deal. Yesterday was another bump in the road for Brexit after more than two-thirds of the U.K. Parliament voted against British Prime Minister Theresa May’s separation deal. Market participants had been largely positioned for Parliament’s rejection of May’s deal, especially after several Brexit-related political resignations and a delayed vote. However, the path to a Brexit...
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Daily Insights Treasury yield curve steepens, spread to investment grade widens. The Treasury yield curve steepened over the past week despite recent data suggesting global economic activity, particularly in China, ticked lower. Instead, more dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank officials amid the backdrop of a robust labor market, healthy wage growth, and moderate price inflation...
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Daily Insights Weak Chinese trade data, the unofficial kickoff of fourth quarter earnings season, and the ongoing government shutdown are on investors radars this morning. Weak trade data adds pressure on China. China’s exports fell 4.4% year over year, well below the expected 2% increase, while Chinese imports significantly missed expectations slipping 3.1%. Both figures...
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Daily Insights Resilient earnings expectations in developed international markets. In an environment where U.S. earnings have generally paced the globe, 2019 earnings estimates for the MSCI EAFE Index-mostly Europe with much of the rest in Japan-have actually held up better than those in the U.S. and emerging markets (EM)recently. Over the past month, despite heightened concerns about global growth,...
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Daily Insights Make it three in a row. The S&P 500 Index rose for the third day in a row for the first time since ahead of the Midterm elections. In fact, stocks haven’t closed in the red since Federal Reserve (Fed)Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed would be ‘patient’ in regards to its interest rate policy. But just how...
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